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Publication details

Behavioural breaks in the heterogeneous agent model: The impact of herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment

Journal Article

Kukačka Jiří, Baruník Jozef

serial: Physica. A : Statistical Mechanics and its Applications vol.392, 23 (2013), p. 5920-5938

project(s): GA402/09/0965, GA ČR

keywords: Heterogeneous agent model, Behavioural finance, Herding, Overconfidence, Market sentiment, Stock market crash

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abstract (eng):

The main aim of this work is to incorporate selected findings from behavioural finance into a Heterogeneous Agent Model using the Brock and Hommes (1998) [34] framework. Behavioural patterns are injected into an asset pricing framework through the so-called ‘Break Point Date’, which allows us to examine their direct impact. In particular, we analyse the dynamics of the model around the behavioural break. Price behaviour of 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents covering five particularly turbulent US stock market periods reveals interesting patterns in this aspect. To replicate it, we apply numerical analysis using the Heterogeneous Agent Model extended with the selected findings from behavioural finance: herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment. We show that these behavioural breaks can be well modelled via the Heterogeneous Agent Model framework and they extend the original model considerably. Various modifications lead to significantly different results and model with behavioural breaks is also able to partially replicate price behaviour found in the data during turbulent stock market periods.


bocek: 2012-12-21 16:10