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Conference Paper (international conference)

Modeling COVID Pandemics: Strengths and Weaknesses of Epidemic Models

Šmíd Martin

: Proceedings of the 12th Workshop on Uncertainty Processing, p. 205-214 , Eds: Studený Milan, Ay Nihat, Coletti Giulianella, Kleiter Gernot D., Shenoy Prakash P.

: WUPES 2022: 12th Workshop on Uncertainty Processing, (Kutná Hora, CZ, 20220601)

: COVID, Epidemic Models, stochastic model


(eng): We generally discuss modeling the present COVID pandemics. We argue that useful models have to be simple in the first case, yet their uncertainty has to be handled properly. In order to study circumstances of the upcoming wave of infection,\nwe construct a simple stochastic model and present predictions it gives. We conclude that the autumn wave is most likely unavoidable and suggest concentrating to mitigation.

: BB

: 10103